The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for Mexican beer exports has remained exceptionally high, rising from 7,200 in 2007 to nearly 8,900 in 2024.

This indicates a near-duopoly market, largely controlled by Grupo Modelo (AB InBev) and Cuauhtémoc Moctezuma (Heineken).

Remarkably, this high concentration has not hindered export growth — quite the opposite. Export value has more than tripled, signaling that market power has enabled scale, investment, and global reach.

Takeaway: For investors or partners, beer is a play on scale, infrastructure, and trade logistics, not diversity of suppliers.

In contrast, the HHI for spirits plunged from ~1,800 in 2007 to a low of 770 in 2023, only slightly rebounding in 2024.

This signals a fragmented, competitive market, driven by small and mid-sized players, especially in tequila and mezcal.

Export growth exploded regardless, growing faster and earlier than beer in relative terms — especially between 2013 and 2021, when fragmentation accelerated.

Takeaway: Spirits are a story of regional specialization, cultural branding, and SME-driven dynamism — with more entry points for niche players, investors, and global buyers.

Market Monitoring: Export growth alone doesn’t tell the full story — concentration metrics reveal strategic behavior, market risk, and opportunity scope.

Policy and Support: For government and trade bodies, the spirits sector may warrant continued cluster support and international certification programs, while beer can benefit from trade facilitation and infrastructure upgrades.

B2B Intelligence: Concentration indexes help prioritize channel strategies, negotiation tactics, and risk exposure, especially for foreign importers or investors choosing between anchoring with incumbents (beer) or diversifying across small suppliers (spirits).