1. Why this matters
If you only look at headline trade flows, the story is simple: imports by Mexican computer OEMs grew very fast between 2020 and 2025. But when you break those flows by customs regime (IMMEX, Virtual and Definitive), a different narrative emerges:
Mexico did not just import more.
It changed how it imports – building a dual-channel architecture where Virtual operations are now a structural part of the model.
For anyone tracking nearshoring, supply-chain design, or OEM strategies in North America, this regime mix is where the real story lives.
2. Chapter 1 (2020–2022): From IMMEX-centric to a dual-channel model
In 2020 the picture was classic:
IMMEX concentrated close to nine out of every ten dollars imported by computer OEMs.
Virtual operations were in the single-digit/low teens share range.
Definitive was residual.
Between 2020 and 2022 three things happen simultaneously:
Total imports jump by roughly 50%, as demand and production ramp up.
IMMEX imports grow strongly in absolute terms, confirming Mexico’s role as an assembly/manufacturing hub.
Virtual operations quietly double their share, moving from ~10% to the mid-teens / ~20% of total value, with some months where Virtual approaches 40% of monthly imports.
By the end of 2022, the system is no longer “IMMEX + marginal Virtual.” It is a dual-channel architecture:
IMMEX remains the backbone,
Virtual becomes a second, sizeable pipe that OEMs use for big intra-group and cross-border events.
3. Chapter 2 (2023–2025): Consolidation and scale-up of the new model
From 2023 onward, the question is not “will Virtual survive?” but “does this new architecture stabilize and scale?”
2023 looks like a correction year in levels: total imports ease after the 2022 peak. But by regime:
IMMEX moderates with the cycle.
Virtual maintains a high, persistent share (often 15–25%, sometimes above 30%).
Definitive remains a small, low-single-digit residual.
In other words, 2023 is an operational test of the dual-channel model, not a return to the old IMMEX-only world.
Then 2024–2025 deliver the confirmation:
Levels:
2024 sets a new record in total imports.
2025 (Jan–Oct) adds roughly +65% YoY on top of that for the same period.
Both IMMEX and Virtual imports grow at almost the same rate, so the Virtual channel is clearly being scaled, not reversed.
Mix:
On a full-year basis, 2024 lands around 76% IMMEX / 22% Virtual / 2% Definitive.
In 2025 YTD, the split is very similar: ~79% IMMEX / ~20% Virtual / ~1% Definitive.
Virtual no longer depends on extreme spikes to matter; it sits systematically in a 20–25% band, with several months between 20–30%.
Volatility:
2024 still shows some “shock months” (e.g. March and December, when Virtual exceeds 40% of imports).
2025 keeps Virtual high but with lower volatility, which is exactly what you would expect once a new operating model becomes part of day-to-day business.
The net result is clear:
By 2025, computer OEMs are not experimenting with Virtual. They are running a mature nearshoring configuration: IMMEX as the chassis, Virtual as a second, high-capacity transmission line, and Definitive pushed to the margins for extraodinary supply chain events.
4. Why this is a nearshoring story
Viewed over 2020–2025, the data tell a coherent three-step nearshoring story:
Architecture change (2020–2022):
Virtual’s share rises from ~10% to the mid-teens/~20%, turning it into a structural regime, not a rounding error.Consolidation (2023):
Even in a softer year for totals, the IMMEX + Virtual block remains dominant, and Virtual keeps a high share.Scale-up at a new equilibrium (2024–2025):
Imports surge to new highs, and the IMMEX/Virtual mix stabilizes around ~80/20, with Virtual consistently large and Definitive almost irrelevant.
Placed next to the automotive OEM evidence, the message is consistent across sectors:
nearshoring in Mexico is not just about more factories; it is about a re-wiring of legal and operational regimes, where IMMEX and Virtual together define the new backbone of North American production networks.
If this dual-channel pattern is already visible in a single segment like computer OEMs, the natural next step is to ask how far it extends across the rest of Mexico’s manufacturing map. A deeper cut can follow these flows by brand, product family, corridor (border vs Bajío vs Centro), and even by specific OEM–EMS networks, and then benchmark them against autos, electronics, and other nearshoring-intensive sectors. That type of cross-sector regime analysis—IMMEX vs Virtual over time—can help you quantify where nearshoring is genuinely changing supply-chain architecture, where it is still “business as usual,” and where there may be hidden opportunities for suppliers, logistics players, and investors that do not yet show up in traditional trade statistics.
